{"F": {"ts_code": "301056.SZ", "name": "森赫股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "楼宇设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210907", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.8, "pe_ttm": 58.5232, "pb": 5.1885, "dv_ttm": 2.7027, "total_mv": 394844.168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.9, 29.4, 28.3, 33.0, 33.1, 33.3], "rev_series": [5.4, 5.8, 6.8, 7.2, 7.2, 5.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.5, 0.9, 1.0, 0.7], "roe_series": [16.2, 12.2, 6.7, 11.5, 11.4, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 2.7, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 33.0, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 12.8, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.7, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.19, "capex_dep": 0.1, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 40.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 111.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.4, "np_cagr3": 14.2, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": -21.0, "np_vol": 39.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["电梯设备销售及安装", 33.0], ["整梯销售及安装收入", 33.0], ["配件及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 124.9, "ret_prev2_year": -20.0, "ret_ytd": -10.8, "ret_pivot": 174.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 40.6, "ret_60": 22.4, "ret_120": -2.3, "ret_250": 30.6, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 56.9, "pos_52w": 84.0}, "S": {"duration": 77, "pricing": 53, "hard": 16, "bondness": 74}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 58.5 倍、股息率 2.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.0%、固定资产占比 10%、资产负债率 40%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.0%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 58.5 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 31%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 41% / 22% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "森赫股份:PE 比行业中位高 16.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}