{"F": {"ts_code": "301051.SZ", "name": "信濠光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210827", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6258, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 497172.1392, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.6, 24.3, 5.5, 20.3, 6.4, -5.7], "rev_series": [13.3, 18.8, 15.9, 17.3, 16.9, 16.4], "np_series": [2.2, 1.6, -1.5, 0.4, -3.5, -3.0], "roe_series": [31.6, 8.7, -5.6, 1.5, -14.2, -14.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.2, "np_ttm": -2.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -5.0, "fcf_yield": -10.0, "ocf_yield": -1.1, "gm_median": 6.4, "gm_std": 10.9, "gm_stab": -0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -28.1, "npm_median": -11.7, "roe_median": -5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.5, "fix_assets": 22.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 2.63, "capex_dep": 1.87, "interest_debt": 15.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 51.0, "debt_mv": 30.9, "payout": 58.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -25.2, "np_yoy": 46.8, "np_vol": 394.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["智能手机与电脑类", 37.0], ["智能头显与智能穿戴类", 6.0], ["电力销售收入-辅助服务收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.9, "ret_prev2_year": -40.4, "ret_ytd": 24.9, "ret_pivot": 27.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.3, "ret_60": 8.6, "ret_120": 13.6, "ret_250": -4.4, "mdd_250": -47.7, "vol_250": 67.1, "pos_52w": 74.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 7, "hard": 89, "bondness": 43}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -28.1 个百分点;资产负债率 51%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.4%,稳定度 -70%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.0%(经营现金流/市值 -1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.4%,稳定度 -70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -28.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 1.87 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 9% / 14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "信濠光电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.7个百分点。"]}}