{"F": {"ts_code": "301048.SZ", "name": "金鹰重工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.12, "pe_ttm": 23.3551, "pb": 1.6989, "dv_ttm": 1.1812, "total_mv": 486400.0608, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.4, 16.2, 17.8, 18.6, 16.1, 16.9], "rev_series": [26.0, 30.5, 32.6, 30.6, 30.9, 32.0], "np_series": [1.9, 2.4, 3.0, 3.0, 1.9, 2.0], "roe_series": [15.0, 14.6, 14.5, 12.6, 7.4, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.8, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 8.3, "ocf_yield": 8.9, "gm_median": 16.9, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 12.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.7, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.7, "capex_dep": 0.93, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 50.2, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 17.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.6, "np_cagr3": -12.6, "rev_yoy": 9.9, "np_yoy": 6.7, "np_vol": 22.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["铁路工程机械", 28.0], ["轨道工程装备销售", 23.0], ["维修业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.7, "ret_prev2_year": -10.9, "ret_ytd": -19.2, "ret_pivot": 17.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": 3.7, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": -29.9, "mdd_250": -37.3, "vol_250": 37.6, "pos_52w": 68.6}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 49, "hard": 19, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 23.4 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.93 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.4 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 4% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "金鹰重工:PE 比行业中位低 2.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}