{"F": {"ts_code": "301047.SZ", "name": "义翘神州", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210816", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 91.94, "pe_ttm": 67.6776, "pb": 2.1369, "dv_ttm": 5.6559, "total_mv": 1118327.8198, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [96.9, 94.0, 85.0, 82.1, 73.3, 73.3], "rev_series": [16.0, 9.7, 5.7, 6.5, 6.1, 7.0], "np_series": [11.3, 7.2, 3.0, 2.6, 1.2, 1.5], "roe_series": [155.7, 17.9, 4.6, 4.1, 2.0, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.7, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 82.1, "gm_std": 7.8, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -11.9, "npm_median": 40.2, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.1, "fix_assets": 8.8, "goodwill_ratio": 4.8, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 2.4, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 4.0, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 104.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.8, "np_cagr3": -21.3, "rev_yoy": 21.1, "np_yoy": 25.9, "np_vol": 29.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 55.1, "fwd_pe2": 42.4, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 1.84, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["重组蛋白", 22.0], ["CRO服务", 15.0], ["抗体", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.3, "ret_prev2_year": -25.0, "ret_ytd": 38.5, "ret_pivot": 78.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.8, "ret_60": 55.3, "ret_120": 31.4, "ret_250": 33.4, "mdd_250": -34.1, "vol_250": 53.5, "pos_52w": 65.9}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 77, "hard": 26, "bondness": 79}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 67.7 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 55.1 倍,次年 42.4 倍,PEG 1.84。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 82.1%),硬资产占比 16%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 82.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 2.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.7 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 33%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / 55% / 31%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "义翘神州:PE 比行业中位高 35.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.0个百分点。"]}}