{"F": {"ts_code": "301043.SZ", "name": "绿岛风", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "制冷空调设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210811", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.36, "pe_ttm": 57.8263, "pb": 3.8424, "dv_ttm": 1.8197, "total_mv": 328848.4836, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.0, 31.5, 33.3, 37.3, 37.5, 34.1], "rev_series": [4.1, 5.5, 4.7, 5.7, 6.0, 5.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.5, 0.4, 1.0, 1.1, 0.7], "roe_series": [27.6, 10.4, 5.5, 12.0, 12.3, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.6, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 34.1, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 12.3, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.7, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.84, "capex_dep": 2.03, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 34.5, "debt_mv": 10.2, "payout": 62.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.6, "np_cagr3": 18.0, "rev_yoy": 2.4, "np_yoy": -27.4, "np_vol": 61.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["新风设备", 23.0], ["新风系列产品", 23.0], ["风幕机", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 141.9, "ret_prev2_year": -10.7, "ret_ytd": -25.6, "ret_pivot": 131.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.8, "ret_60": 13.6, "ret_120": -11.1, "ret_250": 37.0, "mdd_250": -55.2, "vol_250": 73.7, "pos_52w": 60.1}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 54, "hard": 28, "bondness": 58}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 57.8 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.1%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.1%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 2.03 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.8 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 37%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 14% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "绿岛风:PE 比行业中位高 7.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点。"]}}