{"F": {"ts_code": "301042.SZ", "name": "安联锐视", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "安防设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210805", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.42, "pe_ttm": 105.9895, "pb": 2.8773, "dv_ttm": 0.8897, "total_mv": 304073.6482, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.4, 22.8, 29.3, 34.6, 35.0, 38.7], "rev_series": [9.4, 8.7, 7.9, 6.9, 6.9, 4.7], "np_series": [0.8, 0.7, 1.0, 0.9, 0.7, 0.3], "roe_series": [19.4, 9.3, 9.0, 7.9, 6.5, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": -3.8, "gm_median": 34.6, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 4.9, "npm_median": 10.4, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.1, "fix_assets": 1.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.88, "capex_dep": 1.18, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 10.8, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 95.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -16.1, "np_cagr3": -36.0, "rev_yoy": 44.8, "np_yoy": 14.3, "np_vol": 33.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 41.0, "fwd_pe2": 24.3, "fwd_g1": 159.0, "fwd_g2": 69.0, "peg": 0.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["安防视频监控产品", 49.0], ["服务器业务", 1.0], ["其他业务收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 146.1, "ret_prev2_year": -2.8, "ret_ytd": -49.8, "ret_pivot": 63.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.8, "ret_60": -59.2, "ret_120": -53.2, "ret_250": 7.2, "mdd_250": -69.2, "vol_250": 64.0, "pos_52w": 38.3}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 58, "hard": 18, "bondness": 60}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 106.0 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 41.0 倍,次年 24.3 倍,PEG 0.59。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 34.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 -3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.18 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 106.0 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -69%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 38%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -59% / -53%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "安联锐视:PE 比行业中位高 54.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}