{"F": {"ts_code": "301041.SZ", "name": "金百泽", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210811", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.88, "pe_ttm": 110.4064, "pb": 4.4868, "dv_ttm": 0.1642, "total_mv": 308091.84, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.0, 26.8, 25.9, 28.5, 26.3, 23.5], "rev_series": [5.8, 7.0, 6.5, 6.4, 6.8, 7.0], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.2], "roe_series": [15.0, 10.2, 5.5, 6.1, 5.8, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 26.3, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.5, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.49, "capex_dep": 1.39, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 30.9, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 25.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.4, "np_cagr3": -15.9, "rev_yoy": 19.1, "np_yoy": 226.1, "np_vol": 23.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["印刷电路板", 20.0], ["印制电路板", 20.0], ["电子制造服务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.8, "ret_prev2_year": -11.0, "ret_ytd": 6.4, "ret_pivot": 50.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.6, "ret_60": -12.1, "ret_120": -0.5, "ret_250": -12.4, "mdd_250": -46.9, "vol_250": 51.5, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 51, "hard": 28, "bondness": 28}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 110.4 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.39 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 110.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / -12% / -0%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "金百泽:PE 比行业中位高 45.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.4个百分点。"]}}