{"F": {"ts_code": "301039.SZ", "name": "中集车辆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "商用车", "sw3": "商用载货车", "ind": "商用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.85, "pe_ttm": 17.6205, "pb": 1.0437, "dv_ttm": 4.4586, "total_mv": 1471187.654, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.1, 11.0, 13.3, 19.0, 16.3, 15.9], "rev_series": [265.0, 276.5, 236.2, 250.9, 210.0, 201.8], "np_series": [11.3, 9.0, 11.2, 24.6, 10.9, 9.0], "roe_series": [11.5, 8.3, 9.1, 17.9, 7.4, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 211.6, "np_ttm": 8.3, "ocf_ttm": 14.3, "fcf_ttm": 9.1, "fcf_yield": 6.2, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.4, "fix_assets": 46.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 1.13, "interest_debt": 3.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 38.4, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 71.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.1, "np_cagr3": -6.9, "rev_yoy": 10.1, "np_yoy": -17.0, "np_vol": 60.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 15.5, "fwd_pe2": 12.3, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["销售车辆收入", 22.0], ["销售车辆收入：全球半挂车", 18.0], ["半挂车系列", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.4, "ret_prev2_year": -0.6, "ret_ytd": -12.9, "ret_pivot": -6.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.4, "ret_60": 4.2, "ret_120": -14.4, "ret_250": -11.2, "mdd_250": -36.3, "vol_250": 32.1, "pos_52w": 75.1}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 45, "hard": 31, "bondness": 73}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 72%、股息率 4.5%、营收 3 年复合 -5.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.13 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.6 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 4% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「商用车」13 家中位:PE 13.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 38%。", "中集车辆:PE 比行业中位高 4.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}