{"F": {"ts_code": "301038.SZ", "name": "深水规院", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210804", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.88, "pe_ttm": 61.8411, "pb": 4.3464, "dv_ttm": 0.4642, "total_mv": 398867.04, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.9, 35.0, 28.4, 27.7, 28.2, 32.2], "rev_series": [8.6, 9.3, 9.3, 7.7, 8.5, 7.8], "np_series": [0.9, 1.1, -0.3, -0.3, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [15.3, 13.2, -3.2, -3.5, 6.1, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 28.4, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.2, "fix_assets": 2.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.35, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 52.3, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 32.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 12.5, "np_yoy": 190.9, "np_vol": 133.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["勘测设计", 28.0], ["其他业务", 9.0], ["规划咨询", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 63.1, "ret_prev2_year": -1.9, "ret_ytd": -23.5, "ret_pivot": 67.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.4, "ret_60": -2.0, "ret_120": -18.9, "ret_250": -46.6, "mdd_250": -54.8, "vol_250": 47.9, "pos_52w": 55.9}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 49, "hard": 18, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 62 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 52%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 61.8 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -2% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "深水规院:PE 比行业中位高 20.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}