{"F": {"ts_code": "301037.SZ", "name": "保立佳", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "涂料油墨", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210730", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.05, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.3476, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 181436.3685, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.4, 12.3, 10.5, 13.1, 10.1, 12.7], "rev_series": [20.2, 29.7, 31.6, 22.7, 21.5, 16.9], "np_series": [0.9, 0.5, 0.1, -0.3, -1.5, -0.6], "roe_series": [20.1, 7.7, 0.7, -3.8, -20.9, -9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.1, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 12.3, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": -1.4, "roe_median": -3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.5, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.35, "capex_dep": 0.73, "interest_debt": 11.7, "debt_ebitda": 23.2, "debt_ratio": 76.0, "debt_mv": 64.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -18.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.5, "np_yoy": -440.4, "np_vol": 258.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["建筑乳液", 27.0], ["防水乳液", 11.0], ["纺织乳液", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.7, "ret_prev2_year": -27.6, "ret_ytd": -9.4, "ret_pivot": 55.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": -4.9, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": -13.0, "mdd_250": -41.5, "vol_250": 37.7, "pos_52w": 74.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 62, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 23.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.73 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -5% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "保立佳:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点。"]}}