{"F": {"ts_code": "301036.SZ", "name": "双乐股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "涂料油墨", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210729", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.53, "pe_ttm": 363.0002, "pb": 1.3837, "dv_ttm": 1.3316, "total_mv": 225300.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.5, 17.9, 10.2, 13.1, 17.0, 13.4], "rev_series": [13.5, 13.4, 12.7, 14.3, 15.8, 14.8], "np_series": [1.6, 1.0, 0.3, 0.5, 1.2, 0.5], "roe_series": [17.5, 7.4, 1.8, 3.0, 7.5, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.6, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -15.3, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.0, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.34, "capex_dep": 0.11, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 36.3, "debt_mv": 33.4, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.1, "np_cagr3": 20.0, "rev_yoy": -1.9, "np_yoy": -96.9, "np_vol": 86.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["酞菁颜料", 33.0], ["铬黄", 7.0], ["铬系颜料", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.9, "ret_prev2_year": 83.7, "ret_ytd": -33.9, "ret_pivot": -18.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": -3.7, "ret_120": -25.1, "ret_250": -41.0, "mdd_250": -52.6, "vol_250": 34.5, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 50, "bondness": 56}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.11 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 363.0 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -4% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "双乐股份:PE 比行业中位高 327.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点。"]}}