{"F": {"ts_code": "301029.SZ", "name": "怡合达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210723", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.36, "pe_ttm": 29.3943, "pb": 3.685, "dv_ttm": 2.9368, "total_mv": 1612355.0712, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.9, 41.6, 39.1, 37.9, 35.3, 39.1], "rev_series": [12.1, 18.0, 25.1, 28.8, 25.0, 29.5], "np_series": [2.7, 4.0, 5.1, 5.5, 4.0, 5.1], "roe_series": [21.9, 22.1, 20.5, 19.0, 11.3, 12.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.4, "np_ttm": 5.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 39.1, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 18.9, "roe_median": 19.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.7, "fix_assets": 13.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.68, "capex_dep": 4.84, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 18.3, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 43.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": 0.4, "rev_yoy": 26.9, "np_yoy": 13.0, "np_vol": 24.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 25.1, "fwd_pe2": 20.6, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["直线运动零件", 13.0], ["合计特别调整", 10.0], ["铝型材及配件", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.6, "ret_prev2_year": -2.7, "ret_ytd": -1.6, "ret_pivot": 63.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.8, "ret_60": -14.3, "ret_120": -7.2, "ret_250": -4.4, "mdd_250": -31.6, "vol_250": 46.7, "pos_52w": 77.9}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 57, "hard": 41, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 29.4 倍、股息率 2.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.1%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.1%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 4.84 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.4 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -14% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "怡合达:PE 比行业中位低 48.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点。"]}}