{"F": {"ts_code": "301028.SZ", "name": "鼎熔岩", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210720", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.46, "pe_ttm": 21.6192, "pb": 2.9698, "dv_ttm": 1.4771, "total_mv": 519993.8538, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.7, 33.3, 32.1, 30.2, 30.6, 30.9], "rev_series": [7.8, 8.9, 7.9, 9.6, 11.4, 12.1], "np_series": [1.4, 1.8, 1.6, 1.6, 2.2, 2.3], "roe_series": [30.0, 22.1, 14.0, 13.1, 15.6, 14.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.2, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 30.9, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 19.2, "roe_median": 14.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.8, "fix_assets": 11.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.97, "capex_dep": 9.95, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 43.9, "debt_mv": 10.4, "payout": 32.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.0, "np_cagr3": 13.3, "rev_yoy": 18.7, "np_yoy": 6.6, "np_vol": 16.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["螺杆机", 76.0], ["其他产品", 22.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 38.0, "ret_prev2_year": -6.6, "ret_ytd": -7.0, "ret_pivot": 66.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": -14.1, "ret_120": -9.7, "ret_250": -4.4, "mdd_250": -46.2, "vol_250": 53.2, "pos_52w": 65.9}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 58, "hard": 57, "bondness": 31}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 11 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.9%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -1.9%,股息率 1.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 77%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(毛利率 30.9% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.9%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 9.95 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.6 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -14% / -10%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "鼎熔岩:PE 比行业中位低 29.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.0个百分点。"]}}