{"F": {"ts_code": "301027.SZ", "name": "华蓝集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210715", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.3, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5228, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 313110.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.6, 35.9, 36.1, 37.3, 39.9, 37.9], "rev_series": [10.9, 11.5, 8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 7.2], "np_series": [1.2, 1.3, 0.5, 0.2, -0.1, -0.4], "roe_series": [33.5, 19.0, 5.8, 2.1, -1.4, -3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.9, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 37.3, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 2.7, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.7, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.52, "capex_dep": 1.47, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 56.0, "debt_mv": 9.4, "payout": 10.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -14.6, "np_yoy": -3.6, "np_vol": 65.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["工程设计", 27.0], ["光伏发电", 8.0], ["国土空间规划", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.6, "ret_prev2_year": 28.5, "ret_ytd": 15.7, "ret_pivot": 178.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": 14.9, "ret_120": -4.2, "ret_250": 38.3, "mdd_250": -30.9, "vol_250": 57.7, "pos_52w": 81.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 60, "hard": 33, "bondness": 36}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 56%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.3%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 1.47 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 38%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 15% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "华蓝集团:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点。"]}}