{"F": {"ts_code": "301026.SZ", "name": "浩通科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "其他小金属", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.76, "pe_ttm": 19.4978, "pb": 2.6574, "dv_ttm": 1.3763, "total_mv": 460007.5142, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.5, 14.3, 8.2, 8.0, 7.1, 6.5], "rev_series": [10.8, 22.4, 25.7, 25.3, 26.6, 42.8], "np_series": [1.2, 2.5, 1.5, 1.0, 1.2, 1.7], "roe_series": [24.2, 26.8, 11.0, 7.4, 7.9, 11.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 56.9, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.7, "fcf_yield": -6.0, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 8.0, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 12.0, "fix_assets": 4.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.66, "capex_dep": 5.62, "interest_debt": 8.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 55.3, "debt_mv": 18.4, "payout": 36.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.6, "np_cagr3": 6.1, "rev_yoy": 104.1, "np_yoy": 73.4, "np_vol": 52.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 15.2, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["贵金属回收业务", 35.0], ["贵金属回收", 35.0], ["贸易", 30.0], ["新材料", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.9, "ret_prev2_year": -9.4, "ret_ytd": 4.0, "ret_pivot": 70.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.0, "ret_60": -3.8, "ret_120": -3.3, "ret_250": -7.5, "mdd_250": -40.9, "vol_250": 58.6, "pos_52w": 74.5}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 70, "hard": 19, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.5 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 8.0%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.0%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 5.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.5 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -4% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "浩通科技:PE 比行业中位低 17.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.7个百分点。"]}}