{"F": {"ts_code": "301025.SZ", "name": "读客文化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210719", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.73, "pe_ttm": 287.19, "pb": 6.2183, "dv_ttm": 0.1542, "total_mv": 389501.0462, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.4, 36.9, 38.6, 30.2, 34.7, 32.7], "rev_series": [4.1, 5.2, 5.1, 4.3, 4.1, 3.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.7, 0.6, -0.0, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [10.6, 11.8, 9.7, -0.5, 2.4, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.5, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 34.7, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 1.2, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 2.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.4, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.22, "capex_dep": 0.06, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 14.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 75.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -12.1, "np_cagr3": -48.0, "rev_yoy": 2.8, "np_yoy": 78.5, "np_vol": 235.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["纸质图书", 84.0], ["数字内容", 15.0], ["版权运营", 0.0], ["推广服务等", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.8, "ret_prev2_year": -16.1, "ret_ytd": -0.3, "ret_pivot": 20.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.2, "ret_60": 9.1, "ret_120": -13.4, "ret_250": -15.6, "mdd_250": -51.6, "vol_250": 51.4, "pos_52w": 63.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 1, "bondness": 48}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 287.2 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.7%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.7%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.06 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 287.2 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 9% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "读客文化:PE 比行业中位高 254.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.3个百分点。"]}}