{"F": {"ts_code": "301024.SZ", "name": "霍普股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210728", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.57, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.3438, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 213454.845, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.1, 45.3, -35.1, 22.3, 21.9, 36.0], "rev_series": [3.2, 3.4, 1.3, 1.4, 1.4, 1.5], "np_series": [0.7, 0.5, -1.8, -1.0, -1.1, -0.8], "roe_series": [25.6, 8.1, -24.3, -18.1, -23.6, -21.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.6, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": -0.9, "gm_median": 22.3, "gm_std": 28.0, "gm_stab": -0.26, "gm_chg_2022": -83.2, "npm_median": -72.6, "roe_median": -21.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.0, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 3.3, "pb_calc": 6.34, "capex_dep": 5.12, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 47.7, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 4.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.3, "np_yoy": -1.8, "np_vol": 196.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["居住建筑", 11.0], ["电站开发运营销售", 10.0], ["电站开发及运营", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.6, "ret_prev2_year": -21.5, "ret_ytd": -5.1, "ret_pivot": 80.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": -20.5, "ret_120": -14.1, "ret_250": -27.7, "mdd_250": -49.7, "vol_250": 53.4, "pos_52w": 65.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 15, "hard": 26, "bondness": 19}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 48%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 -26%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -83.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 5.12 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -20% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "霍普股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点。"]}}