{"F": {"ts_code": "301023.SZ", "name": "奕帆传动", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电机Ⅱ", "sw3": "电机Ⅲ", "ind": "电机Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.59, "pe_ttm": 44.6689, "pb": 3.2278, "dv_ttm": 2.6233, "total_mv": 266803.5954, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.5, 45.7, 45.3, 43.3, 44.5, 43.3], "rev_series": [1.8, 2.1, 1.8, 1.7, 2.8, 2.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.5, 0.9, 0.7], "roe_series": [28.7, 12.2, 9.6, 5.7, 11.6, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.5, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 44.5, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": 31.7, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.4, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.23, "capex_dep": 0.52, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 14.9, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 97.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.1, "np_cagr3": -3.7, "rev_yoy": -8.5, "np_yoy": -31.0, "np_vol": 48.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["储能减速电机", 58.0], ["房车减速电机", 13.0], ["其他主营业务", 11.0], ["其他(含其他业务收入)", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.1, "ret_prev2_year": 19.2, "ret_ytd": -20.4, "ret_pivot": 58.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.1, "ret_60": -6.4, "ret_120": -20.2, "ret_250": -26.3, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 53.3, "pos_52w": 58.1}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 60, "hard": 15, "bondness": 61}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 44.7 倍、股息率 2.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 44.5%、固定资产占比 9%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.5%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.5%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.52 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.7 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -6% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电机Ⅱ」28 家中位:PE 46.1 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 38%。", "奕帆传动:PE 比行业中位低 1.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点。"]}}