{"F": {"ts_code": "301020.SZ", "name": "密封科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.97, "pe_ttm": 31.5098, "pb": 3.0293, "dv_ttm": 1.5737, "total_mv": 307000.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.5, 40.8, 32.3, 32.1, 29.6, 31.0], "rev_series": [4.9, 4.9, 4.0, 5.1, 5.3, 5.6], "np_series": [1.0, 0.9, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9], "roe_series": [28.2, 15.1, 7.6, 8.2, 8.9, 9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.0, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 32.1, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -12.2, "npm_median": 15.8, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.6, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.03, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 26.6, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 55.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.6, "np_cagr3": 11.1, "rev_yoy": 14.2, "np_yoy": 17.5, "np_vol": 16.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["垫片类产品", 41.0], ["合计特别调整", 7.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.0, "ret_prev2_year": -12.6, "ret_ytd": -4.3, "ret_pivot": 35.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": -10.6, "ret_120": -6.0, "ret_250": -13.4, "mdd_250": -48.2, "vol_250": 42.4, "pos_52w": 65.5}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 51, "hard": 11, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.5 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.1%、固定资产占比 7%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.1%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.5 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -11% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "密封科技:PE 比行业中位高 1.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.9个百分点。"]}}