{"F": {"ts_code": "301019.SZ", "name": "宁波色母", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210628", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.29, "pe_ttm": 25.8897, "pb": 2.8488, "dv_ttm": 3.5426, "total_mv": 302674.8769, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.3, 34.5, 30.1, 35.2, 33.5, 37.5], "rev_series": [4.3, 4.9, 4.6, 4.5, 4.9, 4.7], "np_series": [1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [33.2, 16.2, 9.9, 9.5, 9.0, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.2, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 34.5, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -9.2, "npm_median": 22.1, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.6, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.85, "capex_dep": 3.73, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 17.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 97.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.3, "np_cagr3": 3.1, "rev_yoy": 21.1, "np_yoy": 13.4, "np_vol": 5.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["色母粒", 47.0], ["合计特别调整", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.8, "ret_prev2_year": 1.8, "ret_ytd": -17.4, "ret_pivot": 65.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": -3.1, "ret_120": -14.1, "ret_250": 6.9, "mdd_250": -42.5, "vol_250": 56.0, "pos_52w": 63.2}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 54, "hard": 27, "bondness": 75}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 97%、股息率 3.5%、营收 3 年复合 0.3%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.5%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 3.73 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -3% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "宁波色母:PE 比行业中位低 15.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.3个百分点。"]}}