{"F": {"ts_code": "301018.SZ", "name": "申菱环境", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "制冷空调设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 102.92, "pe_ttm": 319.9202, "pb": 14.1185, "dv_ttm": 0.1735, "total_mv": 3852103.1396, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.5, 27.7, 27.8, 27.6, 23.8, 24.0], "rev_series": [14.7, 18.0, 22.2, 25.1, 30.2, 42.1], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, 1.7, 1.0, 1.2, 2.2], "roe_series": [14.7, 12.0, 11.0, 5.2, 4.6, 8.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.8, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -5.7, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 27.6, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.6, "fix_assets": 18.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 14.12, "capex_dep": 4.37, "interest_debt": 24.6, "debt_ebitda": 7.4, "debt_ratio": 66.6, "debt_mv": 6.4, "payout": 37.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 23.7, "np_cagr3": 9.2, "rev_yoy": 4.4, "np_yoy": -64.1, "np_vol": 39.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 77.1, "fwd_pe2": 37.7, "fwd_g1": 315.0, "fwd_g2": 104.0, "peg": 0.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["设备", 35.0], ["解决方案及服务", 10.0], ["解决方案及增值服务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.9, "ret_prev2_year": 48.0, "ret_ytd": 127.7, "ret_pivot": 721.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.7, "ret_60": 5.5, "ret_120": 43.0, "ret_250": 104.6, "mdd_250": -45.8, "vol_250": 85.3, "pos_52w": 82.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 36, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 319.9 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 4.37 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 319.9 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 105%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 85%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 6% / 43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "申菱环境:PE 比行业中位高 269.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点。"]}}