{"F": {"ts_code": "301016.SZ", "name": "雷尔伟", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.88, "pe_ttm": 63.3681, "pb": 4.1496, "dv_ttm": 0.7703, "total_mv": 425295.8308, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.8, 43.2, 38.7, 33.1, 38.8, 37.0], "rev_series": [4.7, 5.1, 4.5, 3.5, 3.7, 3.9], "np_series": [1.1, 1.3, 0.9, 0.5, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [32.6, 19.6, 9.7, 5.5, 6.5, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 38.7, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.6, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.15, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 13.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 73.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.1, "np_cagr3": -8.0, "rev_yoy": -4.9, "np_yoy": -12.7, "np_vol": 24.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["机加工产品", 12.0], ["机加工", 12.0], ["铝合金产品", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 55.8, "ret_prev2_year": 26.7, "ret_ytd": -13.4, "ret_pivot": 64.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": -1.3, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": 5.3, "mdd_250": -47.4, "vol_250": 60.7, "pos_52w": 66.3}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 55, "hard": 23, "bondness": 53}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 63.4 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.7%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.4 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -1% / -18%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "雷尔伟:PE 比行业中位高 37.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点。"]}}