{"F": {"ts_code": "301015.SZ", "name": "百洋医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医药商业", "sw3": "医药流通", "ind": "医药商业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.92, "pe_ttm": 22.4672, "pb": 5.2495, "dv_ttm": 2.4913, "total_mv": 1204730.4372, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.1, 25.1, 27.8, 30.0, 35.5, 37.5], "rev_series": [58.8, 70.5, 75.1, 75.6, 80.9, 75.1], "np_series": [2.7, 4.2, 5.0, 6.6, 6.9, 4.7], "roe_series": [19.8, 23.3, 22.5, 26.4, 27.4, 19.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 73.1, "np_ttm": 5.4, "ocf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 30.0, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 2.7, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 23.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.9, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 5.03, "capex_dep": 4.34, "interest_debt": 38.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 65.8, "debt_mv": 31.7, "payout": 61.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.0, "np_cagr3": -1.9, "rev_yoy": -5.1, "np_yoy": 37.7, "np_vol": 29.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 19.5, "fwd_pe2": 17.4, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["品牌产品销售推广业务分部", 30.0], ["迪巧系列产品销售", 12.0], ["医药批发配送业务分部", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.7, "ret_prev2_year": -32.2, "ret_ytd": -0.5, "ret_pivot": 24.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.0, "ret_60": 14.8, "ret_120": 5.3, "ret_250": -7.1, "mdd_250": -38.1, "vol_250": 41.3, "pos_52w": 74.5}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 54, "hard": 16, "bondness": 69}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.5 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.0%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.0%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.0%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 4.34 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.5 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 15% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医药商业」32 家中位:PE 22.5 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 13.4% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 38%。", "百洋医药:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点。"]}}