{"F": {"ts_code": "301012.SZ", "name": "扬电科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.13, "pe_ttm": 93.5284, "pb": 3.8156, "dv_ttm": 0.1729, "total_mv": 455568.9426, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 20.3, 20.9, 12.5, 13.3, 10.5], "rev_series": [4.4, 5.1, 6.3, 5.8, 13.3, 12.8], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.7, 0.1, 0.7, 0.4], "roe_series": [13.7, 10.9, 11.1, 0.8, 6.2, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 13.3, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.1, "fix_assets": 3.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.82, "capex_dep": 3.38, "interest_debt": 6.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 44.0, "debt_mv": 13.2, "payout": 28.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 26.3, "np_cagr3": -15.8, "rev_yoy": 18.8, "np_yoy": 43.6, "np_vol": 388.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 30.0], ["变压器业务", 19.0], ["节能电力变压器系列", 16.0], ["变压器业务：节能电力变压器", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.4, "ret_prev2_year": 24.4, "ret_ytd": -12.4, "ret_pivot": 78.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.1, "ret_60": -13.3, "ret_120": -26.2, "ret_250": 0.7, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 63.1, "pos_52w": 55.8}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 36, "hard": 24, "bondness": 26}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 93.5 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.3%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 3.38 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -13% / -26%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "扬电科技:PE 比行业中位高 50.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点。"]}}