{"F": {"ts_code": "301011.SZ", "name": "华立科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "娱乐用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210617", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.28, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.85, "dv_ttm": 0.9817, "total_mv": 236010.4885, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 27.7, 23.4, 28.6, 30.0, 29.9], "rev_series": [4.2, 6.3, 6.0, 8.2, 10.2, 10.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, -0.7, 0.5, 0.8, 0.7], "roe_series": [11.7, 9.2, -10.5, 7.8, 11.8, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -4.6, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 28.6, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 8.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.8, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 2.85, "capex_dep": 1.76, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.6, "debt_ratio": 40.2, "debt_mv": 9.7, "payout": 34.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 18.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -30.6, "np_yoy": -411.2, "np_vol": 134.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 25.8, "fwd_pe2": 20.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.96, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["游戏游艺设备销售", 15.0], ["游戏游艺设备", 15.0], ["动漫IP衍生产品销售", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.8, "ret_prev2_year": 10.9, "ret_ytd": -40.2, "ret_pivot": 4.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": -0.7, "ret_120": -35.3, "ret_250": -50.4, "mdd_250": -57.9, "vol_250": 38.0, "pos_52w": 48.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 40, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 40%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.76 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -50%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -1% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "华立科技:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点。"]}}