{"F": {"ts_code": "301009.SZ", "name": "可靠股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "个护用品", "sw3": "生活用纸", "ind": "个护用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210617", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.18, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9172, "dv_ttm": 1.2811, "total_mv": 249567.48, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 18.6, 13.1, 17.7, 20.8, 24.0], "rev_series": [16.4, 11.9, 11.9, 10.8, 10.8, 11.5], "np_series": [2.1, 0.4, -0.4, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [42.3, 3.9, -3.1, 1.5, 2.3, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.8, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 18.6, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -14.7, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 2.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.0, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.92, "capex_dep": 1.29, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 36.9, "debt_mv": 10.7, "payout": 85.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.3, "np_yoy": -128.0, "np_vol": 121.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["成人失禁用品", 25.0], ["婴儿护理用品", 18.0], ["宠物卫生用品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.6, "ret_prev2_year": 1.0, "ret_ytd": -26.9, "ret_pivot": 32.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": 5.8, "ret_120": -24.1, "ret_250": -41.8, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 32.1, "pos_52w": 58.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 45, "bondness": 69}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE —、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.29 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 6% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「个护用品」12 家中位:PE 25.1 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 28.2% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 70%。", "可靠股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点。"]}}