{"F": {"ts_code": "301008.SZ", "name": "宏昌科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.1, "pe_ttm": 115.8307, "pb": 3.7982, "dv_ttm": 0.0621, "total_mv": 590644.032, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.5, 18.9, 17.9, 20.2, 16.4, 13.2], "rev_series": [5.8, 7.7, 8.3, 8.8, 10.3, 11.5], "np_series": [0.8, 0.7, 0.7, 0.9, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [23.5, 10.2, 6.8, 8.0, 4.6, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 17.9, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -8.6, "npm_median": 8.1, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.5, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 4.1, "pb_calc": 3.8, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 32.2, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 21.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.5, "np_cagr3": -21.3, "rev_yoy": 2.8, "np_yoy": 113.7, "np_vol": 24.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["智能家电部件", 31.0], ["智能家电组件", 31.0], ["汽车零部件加工业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 84.3, "ret_prev2_year": -11.0, "ret_ytd": 30.8, "ret_pivot": 215.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": 87.2, "ret_120": 44.0, "ret_250": 46.3, "mdd_250": -54.3, "vol_250": 76.5, "pos_52w": 86.0}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 43, "hard": 31, "bondness": 20}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 115.8 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 20%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.9%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 115.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 46%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 87% / 44%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "宏昌科技:PE 比行业中位高 65.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}