{"F": {"ts_code": "301004.SZ", "name": "嘉益股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210625", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.94, "pe_ttm": 16.823, "pb": 2.6924, "dv_ttm": 2.8337, "total_mv": 509447.2122, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.6, 28.7, 34.3, 40.7, 37.7, 30.2], "rev_series": [3.6, 5.9, 12.6, 17.8, 28.4, 23.5], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 2.7, 4.7, 7.3, 4.4], "roe_series": [18.3, 16.6, 36.9, 43.4, 44.8, 23.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.9, "np_ttm": 3.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 34.3, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 21.5, "roe_median": 36.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.7, "fix_assets": 9.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.61, "capex_dep": 2.27, "interest_debt": 4.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 30.7, "debt_mv": 8.2, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 23.2, "np_cagr3": 17.1, "rev_yoy": -26.1, "np_yoy": -44.1, "np_vol": 89.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 12.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["不锈钢器皿", 33.0], ["不锈钢", 33.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -34.5, "ret_prev2_year": 184.9, "ret_ytd": -32.9, "ret_pivot": -42.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": -1.7, "ret_120": -31.6, "ret_250": -47.8, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 37.0, "pos_52w": 53.0}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 54, "hard": 52, "bondness": 34}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 9 亿,占总资产 33%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.3%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 4.9%,股息率 2.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 70%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 33%)和定价权(毛利率 34.3% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.3%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 2.27 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.8 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -48%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -2% / -32%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "嘉益股份:PE 比行业中位低 11.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}