{"F": {"ts_code": "301003.SZ", "name": "江苏博云", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210601", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 60.55, "pe_ttm": 57.5443, "pb": 5.0887, "dv_ttm": 0.9909, "total_mv": 588142.1315, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.1, 30.3, 28.0, 33.8, 32.1, 31.8], "rev_series": [4.5, 7.0, 5.2, 5.1, 6.4, 5.5], "np_series": [1.1, 1.3, 1.1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.0], "roe_series": [45.6, 20.0, 10.4, 10.1, 11.8, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.9, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 31.8, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -10.2, "npm_median": 21.9, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.6, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.09, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 8.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 57.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.9, "np_cagr3": -3.5, "rev_yoy": 13.6, "np_yoy": 0.3, "np_vol": 19.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["高性能改性尼龙(PEMARON)", 54.0], ["高性能改性聚酯(AUTRON)", 28.0], ["工程化聚烯烃(VENTRON)", 10.0], ["色母粒和功能性母粒(COLORON)", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 124.5, "ret_prev2_year": -10.2, "ret_ytd": 36.7, "ret_pivot": 268.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.0, "ret_60": 23.5, "ret_120": 18.4, "ret_250": 62.1, "mdd_250": -45.8, "vol_250": 58.9, "pos_52w": 84.1}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 53, "hard": 39, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 57.5 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%、固定资产占比 25%、资产负债率 9%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.8%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.5 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 62%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 24% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "江苏博云:PE 比行业中位高 16.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点。"]}}