{"F": {"ts_code": "301002.SZ", "name": "崧盛股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210607", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.04, "pe_ttm": 109.3125, "pb": 3.3802, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 378362.5068, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.1, 25.8, 28.8, 28.7, 24.4, 24.5], "rev_series": [6.8, 11.0, 7.4, 7.6, 8.8, 9.6], "np_series": [1.0, 1.3, 0.8, 0.2, -0.1, -0.0], "roe_series": [33.5, 24.0, 9.8, 2.9, -1.7, -0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.9, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 25.8, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.0, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 3.38, "capex_dep": 0.73, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 31.8, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 30.7, "np_yoy": 5121.1, "np_vol": 78.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 25.8, "fwd_pe2": 16.0, "fwd_g1": 323.0, "fwd_g2": 62.0, "peg": 0.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["大功率LED驱动电源", 40.0], ["LED驱动电源-大功率", 40.0], ["储能产品", 10.0], ["中功率LED驱动电源", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 114.3, "ret_prev2_year": -17.7, "ret_ytd": -23.0, "ret_pivot": 96.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.0, "ret_60": -35.1, "ret_120": -30.7, "ret_250": -11.3, "mdd_250": -60.2, "vol_250": 65.7, "pos_52w": 44.9}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 51, "hard": 61, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 109 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 32%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.73 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 109.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -35% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "崧盛股份:PE 比行业中位高 65.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.1个百分点。"]}}