{"F": {"ts_code": "301001.SZ", "name": "凯淳股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "互联网电商", "sw3": "电商服务", "ind": "互联网电商", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6815, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 206400.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.6, 28.0, 30.4, 26.5, 29.1, 25.6], "rev_series": [8.9, 8.3, 7.6, 6.4, 4.2, 3.2], "np_series": [0.8, 0.5, -0.1, 0.1, 0.1, -0.1], "roe_series": [28.5, 8.3, -0.7, 0.9, 1.6, -1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.3, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": -2.4, "gm_median": 28.0, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.3, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 2.68, "capex_dep": 0.11, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 13.1, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": 179.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -25.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.0, "np_yoy": -42.5, "np_vol": 143.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电子商务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.7, "ret_prev2_year": 38.3, "ret_ytd": -12.7, "ret_pivot": 43.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.6, "ret_60": 6.5, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": -21.4, "mdd_250": -52.8, "vol_250": 54.6, "pos_52w": 60.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 37, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 13%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 -2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 0.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 6% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「互联网电商」19 家中位:PE 32.2 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 31.4% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 74%。", "凯淳股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点。"]}}