{"F": {"ts_code": "301000.SZ", "name": "肇民科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.45, "pe_ttm": 41.0612, "pb": 4.3964, "dv_ttm": 0.9367, "total_mv": 571215.9705, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.2, 34.1, 31.1, 31.7, 33.8, 32.6], "rev_series": [5.0, 5.8, 5.3, 5.9, 7.6, 8.5], "np_series": [1.0, 1.2, 0.9, 1.0, 1.4, 1.5], "roe_series": [44.5, 16.9, 8.5, 9.1, 12.3, 12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.7, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -3.6, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 17.9, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 6.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.4, "capex_dep": 10.31, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 19.3, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 67.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.5, "np_cagr3": 16.6, "rev_yoy": 5.2, "np_yoy": -14.2, "np_vol": 17.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 35.5, "fwd_pe2": 29.7, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 1.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.7, "ret_prev2_year": 74.6, "ret_ytd": -40.1, "ret_pivot": 109.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.3, "ret_60": -18.9, "ret_120": -28.0, "ret_250": -52.0, "mdd_250": -60.8, "vol_250": 59.1, "pos_52w": 42.0}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 54, "hard": 60, "bondness": 33}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 6 亿,占总资产 38%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -3.6%,股息率 0.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 88%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 38%)和定价权(毛利率 32.6% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 10.31 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.1 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -52%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -19% / -28%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "肇民科技:PE 比行业中位高 10.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点。"]}}