{"F": {"ts_code": "300997.SZ", "name": "欢乐家", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "软饮料", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.85, "pe_ttm": 150.0279, "pb": 7.5052, "dv_ttm": 1.1412, "total_mv": 732930.179, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.4, 36.0, 33.6, 38.7, 34.0, 29.6], "rev_series": [12.5, 14.7, 16.0, 19.2, 18.5, 15.0], "np_series": [1.8, 1.8, 2.0, 2.8, 1.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [26.1, 18.6, 15.8, 19.7, 11.3, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 34.0, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 12.5, "roe_median": 15.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.4, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.51, "capex_dep": 2.16, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 46.0, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 86.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.0, "np_cagr3": -39.9, "rev_yoy": -1.7, "np_yoy": 25.2, "np_vol": 39.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 168.5, "fwd_pe2": 129.6, "fwd_g1": -11.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 5.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["椰子汁", 15.0], ["椰子汁饮料", 15.0], ["水果类罐头", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.5, "ret_prev2_year": 13.9, "ret_ytd": -35.1, "ret_pivot": 86.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.8, "ret_60": 5.1, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": -3.4, "mdd_250": -59.2, "vol_250": 75.2, "pos_52w": 50.8}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 53, "hard": 60, "bondness": 63}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 7 亿,占总资产 37%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 0.5%,股息率 1.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 97%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 37%)和定价权(毛利率 34.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 2.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 150.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 75%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 5% / -18%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "欢乐家:PE 比行业中位高 121.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点。"]}}