{"F": {"ts_code": "300996.SZ", "name": "普联软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210603", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.02, "pe_ttm": 81.2027, "pb": 4.3206, "dv_ttm": 0.5092, "total_mv": 554898.7016, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.4, 46.4, 47.8, 38.4, 33.2, 30.3], "rev_series": [4.2, 5.8, 6.9, 7.5, 8.4, 8.2], "np_series": [0.8, 1.4, 1.6, 0.6, 1.2, 0.7], "roe_series": [22.3, 20.8, 15.8, 5.4, 9.8, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.8, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 38.4, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 4.5, "npm_median": 14.8, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.6, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 4.32, "capex_dep": 10.3, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 26.3, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 32.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.9, "np_cagr3": -22.4, "rev_yoy": -23.7, "np_yoy": -467.7, "np_vol": 59.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 35.9, "fwd_pe2": 30.5, "fwd_g1": 126.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["业财融合", 14.0], ["集团司库", 11.0], ["集团财务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.1, "ret_prev2_year": -20.8, "ret_ytd": 19.4, "ret_pivot": 88.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -28.7, "ret_60": 30.3, "ret_120": 15.8, "ret_250": 0.9, "mdd_250": -33.7, "vol_250": 56.5, "pos_52w": 67.8}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 59, "hard": 6, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 81.2 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 35.9 倍,次年 30.5 倍,PEG 1.99。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 38.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.4%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 10.30 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 81.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -29% / 30% / 16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "普联软件:PE 比行业中位低 1.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}