{"F": {"ts_code": "300994.SZ", "name": "久祺股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "摩托车及其他", "sw3": "其他运输设备", "ind": "摩托车及其他", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210812", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.39, "pe_ttm": 31.383, "pb": 2.3973, "dv_ttm": 8.4284, "total_mv": 265487.232, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.2, 12.6, 13.5, 15.0, 13.6, 14.0], "rev_series": [22.9, 37.1, 23.8, 20.1, 27.9, 33.6], "np_series": [1.6, 2.1, 1.7, 1.1, 1.2, 1.5], "roe_series": [40.4, 27.1, 15.2, 9.5, 10.7, 12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.4, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 8.9, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 5.2, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 4.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.4, "capex_dep": 2.52, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 47.5, "debt_mv": 4.3, "payout": 114.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 12.2, "np_cagr3": -4.1, "rev_yoy": -1.2, "np_yoy": -72.8, "np_vol": 25.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 14.8, "fwd_pe2": 12.0, "fwd_g1": 112.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["配件", 14.0], ["儿童自行车", 10.0], ["成人自行车", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.6, "ret_prev2_year": -22.8, "ret_ytd": -25.2, "ret_pivot": 43.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -4.6, "ret_120": -22.6, "ret_250": -33.6, "mdd_250": -53.2, "vol_250": 41.6, "pos_52w": 54.8}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 43, "hard": 29, "bondness": 75}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 115%、股息率 8.4%、营收 3 年复合 12.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 8.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 2.52 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.4 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -5% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「摩托车及其他」18 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 17.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 50%。", "久祺股份:PE 比行业中位高 2.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.2个百分点。"]}}