{"F": {"ts_code": "300993.SZ", "name": "玉马科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "其他家居用品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210524", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.95, "pe_ttm": 23.8924, "pb": 1.964, "dv_ttm": 1.9801, "total_mv": 306590.544, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.6, 43.6, 41.7, 40.5, 40.0, 38.7], "rev_series": [3.9, 5.2, 5.5, 6.6, 7.7, 7.5], "np_series": [1.1, 1.4, 1.6, 1.7, 1.9, 1.5], "roe_series": [17.9, 15.7, 13.0, 12.4, 13.1, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.9, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 40.5, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 24.9, "roe_median": 13.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.1, "fix_assets": 6.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.96, "capex_dep": 2.59, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 9.2, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.9, "np_cagr3": -1.7, "rev_yoy": 12.9, "np_yoy": -27.6, "np_vol": 16.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["阳光面料", 15.0], ["遮光面料", 11.0], ["全遮光涂层面料", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.1, "ret_prev2_year": 5.7, "ret_ytd": -31.5, "ret_pivot": 18.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.3, "ret_60": -1.2, "ret_120": -23.0, "ret_250": -41.7, "mdd_250": -59.2, "vol_250": 49.0, "pos_52w": 44.8}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 58, "hard": 58, "bondness": 33}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 6 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 40.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.4%,股息率 2.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 79%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(毛利率 40.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 2.59 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.9 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -1% / -23%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "玉马科技:PE 比行业中位低 4.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}