{"F": {"ts_code": "300989.SZ", "name": "蕾奥规划", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "工程咨询服务Ⅲ", "ind": "工程咨询服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210507", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.7, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2737, "dv_ttm": 0.0677, "total_mv": 309520.701, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.0, 48.9, 42.1, 45.5, 38.0, 47.4], "rev_series": [4.9, 5.3, 4.4, 4.8, 3.2, 3.2], "np_series": [0.9, 1.0, 0.3, 0.4, -0.5, 0.2], "roe_series": [64.3, 17.4, 3.1, 4.3, -4.5, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.5, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 45.5, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.8, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.27, "capex_dep": 0.69, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 15.6, "debt_mv": 1.7, "payout": 14.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -10.5, "np_cagr3": -14.0, "rev_yoy": -39.8, "np_yoy": -682.3, "np_vol": 116.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["规划设计", 44.0], ["合计特别调整", 6.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.4, "ret_prev2_year": 6.6, "ret_ytd": -16.7, "ret_pivot": 30.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.0, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -3.4, "ret_250": -14.7, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 40.9, "pos_52w": 78.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 4, "bondness": 29}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 16%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.5%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.69 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 4% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程咨询服务Ⅱ」46 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 33.2% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 39%。", "蕾奥规划:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点。"]}}