{"F": {"ts_code": "300988.SZ", "name": "津荣天宇", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210512", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.64, "pe_ttm": 31.4656, "pb": 2.3345, "dv_ttm": 0.8927, "total_mv": 308042.4684, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.5, 17.1, 17.5, 20.2, 20.0, 21.5], "rev_series": [9.9, 13.4, 14.3, 15.3, 18.4, 19.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 0.8, 0.9], "roe_series": [14.3, 11.0, 9.2, 8.8, 6.5, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.5, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 20.0, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.1, "fix_assets": 7.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.33, "capex_dep": 2.28, "interest_debt": 6.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 46.2, "debt_mv": 21.1, "payout": 30.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.6, "np_cagr3": 3.1, "rev_yoy": 21.9, "np_yoy": 10.9, "np_vol": 13.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电气精密部品", 28.0], ["汽车精密部品", 13.0], ["边角料", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.6, "ret_prev2_year": -14.8, "ret_ytd": -2.9, "ret_pivot": 48.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.6, "ret_60": -5.5, "ret_120": -23.7, "ret_250": -5.4, "mdd_250": -39.0, "vol_250": 43.2, "pos_52w": 72.1}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 47, "hard": 51, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.5 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%、固定资产占比 32%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.5 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -6% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "津荣天宇:PE 比行业中位低 10.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.1个百分点。"]}}