{"F": {"ts_code": "300987.SZ", "name": "川网传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "数字媒体", "sw3": "门户网站", "ind": "数字媒体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.44, "pe_ttm": 134.3679, "pb": 3.1877, "dv_ttm": 0.7964, "total_mv": 250343.392, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.5, 47.5, 41.5, 36.1, 34.1, 30.8], "rev_series": [1.9, 1.9, 2.0, 2.4, 2.9, 3.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [11.7, 12.3, 3.5, 3.9, 2.9, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.0, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 4.6, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 36.1, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -11.1, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.1, "fix_assets": 0.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.19, "capex_dep": 0.53, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 23.7, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": 94.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.2, "np_cagr3": -9.6, "rev_yoy": -7.3, "np_yoy": -72.9, "np_vol": 34.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["新媒体整合营销", 33.0], ["移动信息服务", 14.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.9, "ret_prev2_year": -19.6, "ret_ytd": -13.5, "ret_pivot": 23.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": 8.6, "ret_120": -19.6, "ret_250": -27.4, "mdd_250": -55.8, "vol_250": 46.5, "pos_52w": 54.2}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 51, "hard": 3, "bondness": 46}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 134.4 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 2%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.53 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 134.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 9% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「数字媒体」14 家中位:PE 85.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 44.0% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 55%。", "川网传媒:PE 比行业中位高 48.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}