{"F": {"ts_code": "300986.SZ", "name": "志特新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "其他专业工程", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210430", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.04, "pe_ttm": 40.2268, "pb": 3.1054, "dv_ttm": 0.5906, "total_mv": 693170.3716, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.0, 32.5, 30.9, 21.5, 25.4, 27.3], "rev_series": [11.2, 14.8, 19.3, 22.4, 25.3, 29.7], "np_series": [1.7, 1.6, 1.8, -0.5, 0.7, 1.6], "roe_series": [27.8, 17.1, 13.5, -3.1, 4.9, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.3, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 27.3, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.6, "fix_assets": 27.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.11, "capex_dep": 0.2, "interest_debt": 22.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 63.7, "debt_mv": 32.6, "payout": 28.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.4, "np_cagr3": -2.7, "rev_yoy": 20.1, "np_yoy": 11.5, "np_vol": 130.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 22.2, "fwd_pe2": 18.2, "fwd_g1": 82.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["铝模板销售", 19.0], ["铝模", 19.0], ["其他主营业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.4, "ret_prev2_year": -4.0, "ret_ytd": 52.1, "ret_pivot": 229.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -18.6, "ret_60": -5.7, "ret_120": -34.4, "ret_250": 24.3, "mdd_250": -68.5, "vol_250": 86.5, "pos_52w": 39.0}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 48, "hard": 67, "bondness": 24}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 40.2 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%、固定资产占比 42%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.2 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 86%,现价在 52 周高点的 39%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -19% / -6% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "志特新材:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 31.3个百分点。"]}}