{"F": {"ts_code": "300984.SZ", "name": "金沃股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210618", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.77, "pe_ttm": 112.7512, "pb": 3.2243, "dv_ttm": 0.7198, "total_mv": 572931.6879, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 15.7, 12.6, 12.9, 13.2, 14.9], "rev_series": [5.6, 9.0, 10.4, 9.9, 11.5, 12.5], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [22.1, 13.7, 6.9, 5.5, 3.2, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -2.6, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 13.2, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.9, "fix_assets": 8.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.22, "capex_dep": 1.68, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 22.3, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 71.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": 2.1, "rev_yoy": 8.5, "np_yoy": 10.3, "np_vol": 42.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 45.5, "fwd_pe2": 28.0, "fwd_g1": 148.0, "fwd_g2": 63.0, "peg": 0.72, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["轴承套圈", 95.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 198.8, "ret_prev2_year": 45.5, "ret_ytd": -50.7, "ret_pivot": 224.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.9, "ret_60": -26.2, "ret_120": -31.7, "ret_250": -32.9, "mdd_250": -54.4, "vol_250": 57.7, "pos_52w": 48.4}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 42, "hard": 59, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 1.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 112.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -26% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "金沃股份:PE 比行业中位高 62.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.1个百分点。"]}}