{"F": {"ts_code": "300982.SZ", "name": "苏文电能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210427", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.89, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0808, "dv_ttm": 0.6561, "total_mv": 308171.0339, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 28.6, 26.2, 19.5, 14.9, 13.4], "rev_series": [13.7, 18.6, 23.6, 26.3, 19.3, 12.8], "np_series": [2.4, 3.0, 2.6, 1.1, 0.7, -0.3], "roe_series": [39.7, 27.7, 11.4, 3.4, 2.1, -1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.3, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.2, "fix_assets": 8.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 2.91, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 29.1, "debt_mv": 3.1, "payout": 117.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -18.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -48.8, "np_yoy": -117.4, "np_vol": 58.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["电力工程建设", 20.0], ["电力设备供应", 15.0], ["微电网产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.1, "ret_prev2_year": -42.0, "ret_ytd": -26.3, "ret_pivot": 1.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -16.3, "ret_120": -44.4, "ret_250": -26.8, "mdd_250": -49.9, "vol_250": 51.9, "pos_52w": 53.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 36, "bondness": 70}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 29%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 8.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 2.91 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -16% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "苏文电能:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.2个百分点。"]}}