{"F": {"ts_code": "300980.SZ", "name": "祥源新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.46, "pe_ttm": 34.536, "pb": 2.2542, "dv_ttm": 0.8316, "total_mv": 323900.9592, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.6, 37.5, 31.1, 37.0, 29.3, 28.3], "rev_series": [3.2, 4.6, 3.7, 3.8, 4.8, 6.0], "np_series": [0.7, 0.9, 0.6, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [27.6, 14.4, 6.1, 4.1, 2.1, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.6, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 31.1, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -14.5, "npm_median": 10.7, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.3, "fix_assets": 8.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 1.07, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 11.0, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 75.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 17.3, "np_cagr3": -4.3, "rev_yoy": 20.4, "np_yoy": 218.9, "np_vol": 50.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["电子辐照交联聚乙烯发泡材料", 23.0], ["IXPE", 23.0], ["微孔聚氨酯发泡材料", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.0, "ret_prev2_year": -1.1, "ret_ytd": -27.7, "ret_pivot": 80.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": -8.6, "ret_120": -33.5, "ret_250": -3.6, "mdd_250": -50.9, "vol_250": 61.7, "pos_52w": 60.5}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 50, "hard": 87, "bondness": 35}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 9 亿,占总资产 54%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 31.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -0.9%,股息率 0.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 86%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 54%)和定价权(毛利率 31.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.5 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -9% / -34%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "祥源新材:PE 比行业中位低 6.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.4个百分点。"]}}