{"F": {"ts_code": "300979.SZ", "name": "华利集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "纺织制造", "sw3": "纺织鞋类制造", "ind": "纺织制造", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210426", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.86, "pe_ttm": 15.4092, "pb": 2.4842, "dv_ttm": 6.3907, "total_mv": 3834762.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.8, 27.2, 25.9, 25.6, 26.8, 21.9], "rev_series": [139.3, 174.7, 205.7, 201.1, 240.1, 249.8], "np_series": [18.8, 27.7, 32.3, 32.0, 38.4, 32.1], "roe_series": [37.9, 33.2, 26.8, 22.6, 23.6, 19.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 232.4, "np_ttm": 24.9, "ocf_ttm": 26.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 7.0, "gm_median": 25.9, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 15.8, "roe_median": 23.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.7, "fix_assets": 69.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.48, "capex_dep": 3.21, "interest_debt": 31.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 34.4, "debt_mv": 8.3, "payout": 69.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.7, "np_cagr3": -0.2, "rev_yoy": -13.7, "np_yoy": -43.0, "np_vol": 21.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.5, "consensus_n": 32, "fwd_pe": 14.5, "fwd_pe2": 12.1, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.72, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["运动休闲鞋", 45.0], ["休闲运动类", 45.0], ["运动凉鞋/拖鞋及其他", 4.0], ["拖鞋", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -33.9, "ret_prev2_year": 57.8, "ret_ytd": -33.1, "ret_pivot": -46.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.0, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": -36.2, "mdd_250": -52.2, "vol_250": 31.0, "pos_52w": 52.8}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 54, "hard": 48, "bondness": 70}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 70%、股息率 6.4%、营收 3 年复合 6.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 3.21 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.4 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 0% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「纺织制造」33 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 46%。", "华利集团:PE 比行业中位低 7.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 5.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}