{"F": {"ts_code": "300976.SZ", "name": "达瑞电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210419", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 58.96, "pe_ttm": 35.2998, "pb": 3.0002, "dv_ttm": 0.8411, "total_mv": 1103329.9477, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.6, 39.0, 32.9, 24.6, 25.6, 23.4], "rev_series": [9.6, 12.1, 14.7, 14.0, 25.7, 31.9], "np_series": [2.1, 2.2, 2.0, 0.7, 2.4, 2.8], "roe_series": [28.5, 11.3, 6.4, 2.3, 7.3, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.1, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 25.6, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -10.7, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.5, "fix_assets": 11.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 3.0, "capex_dep": 3.52, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 19.7, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 32.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 29.5, "np_cagr3": 12.1, "rev_yoy": 22.9, "np_yoy": 23.0, "np_vol": 100.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 24.6, "fwd_pe2": 18.6, "fwd_g1": 43.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["消费电子结构与功能性组件", 52.0], ["新能源结构与功能性组件", 46.0], ["3C智能装配自动化设备", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.1, "ret_prev2_year": 30.4, "ret_ytd": 39.0, "ret_pivot": 208.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": -12.1, "ret_120": 43.7, "ret_250": 33.7, "mdd_250": -51.7, "vol_250": 63.6, "pos_52w": 62.6}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 44, "hard": 39, "bondness": 16}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 23%,PE TTM 35.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 24.6 倍,PEG 0.77。", "自由现金流 1.0 亿(正),次年预期增速 32%(6 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.6%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 3.52 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.3 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 34%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -12% / 44%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "达瑞电子:PE 比行业中位低 11.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}