{"F": {"ts_code": "300972.SZ", "name": "万辰集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "超市", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210419", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 184.35, "pe_ttm": 17.4648, "pb": 13.4939, "dv_ttm": 0.5249, "total_mv": 3637844.916, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.9, 10.8, 16.0, 9.3, 10.8, 12.4], "rev_series": [4.5, 4.3, 5.5, 92.9, 323.3, 514.6], "np_series": [1.0, 0.2, 0.5, -0.8, 2.9, 13.4], "roe_series": [25.8, 4.6, 7.2, -12.6, 33.7, 104.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 637.1, "np_ttm": 20.8, "ocf_ttm": 41.4, "fcf_ttm": 40.7, "fcf_yield": 11.2, "ocf_yield": 11.4, "gm_median": 10.8, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -11.9, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.9, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.49, "capex_dep": 0.71, "interest_debt": 17.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 62.2, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 24.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 354.2, "np_cagr3": 204.2, "rev_yoy": 54.3, "np_yoy": 156.6, "np_vol": 268.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 29, "fwd_pe": 14.7, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 19.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["零食产品", 33.0], ["零食", 33.0], ["食用菌", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 154.0, "ret_prev2_year": 119.2, "ret_ytd": -7.9, "ret_pivot": 557.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.9, "ret_60": 0.7, "ret_120": -6.4, "ret_250": 12.9, "mdd_250": -28.7, "vol_250": 50.2, "pos_52w": 79.2}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 37, "hard": 9, "bondness": 13}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 157%,PE TTM 17.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 14.7 倍,PEG 0.49。", "自由现金流 40.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 30%(29 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.2%(经营现金流/市值 11.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.71 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.5 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 1% / -6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "万辰集团:PE 比行业中位低 43.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.5个百分点。"]}}