{"F": {"ts_code": "300970.SZ", "name": "华绿生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "食用菌", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.28, "pe_ttm": 14.6766, "pb": 1.8917, "dv_ttm": 1.9504, "total_mv": 308294.5264, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.3, 6.7, 16.3, 13.5, 6.0, 16.1], "rev_series": [6.1, 5.8, 7.5, 10.0, 10.3, 12.9], "np_series": [1.3, 0.2, 0.8, 0.3, -0.5, 1.1], "roe_series": [16.7, 1.4, 5.3, 2.0, -3.1, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.9, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 11.2, "ocf_yield": 15.0, "gm_median": 13.5, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -11.0, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.7, "fix_assets": 13.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.89, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 35.4, "debt_mv": 22.7, "payout": 65.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 19.8, "np_cagr3": 12.1, "rev_yoy": 39.2, "np_yoy": 185.8, "np_vol": 256.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["金针菇", 53.0], ["真姬菇", 20.0], ["合计特别调整", 13.0], ["其他业务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.5, "ret_prev2_year": -31.2, "ret_ytd": 25.3, "ret_pivot": 142.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.2, "ret_60": -5.7, "ret_120": 3.3, "ret_250": 67.5, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 59.8, "pos_52w": 59.6}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 34, "hard": 84, "bondness": 39}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 53%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 66%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.2%(经营现金流/市值 15.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.7 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 68%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -6% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "华绿生物:PE 比行业中位低 56.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 35.9个百分点。"]}}