{"F": {"ts_code": "300969.SZ", "name": "恒帅股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210412", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 76.91, "pe_ttm": 78.6388, "pb": 7.1059, "dv_ttm": 0.3251, "total_mv": 1262246.1509, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.6, 34.7, 33.1, 36.2, 34.8, 30.8], "rev_series": [3.4, 5.8, 7.4, 9.2, 9.6, 9.5], "np_series": [0.7, 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, 2.1, 1.7], "roe_series": [23.4, 21.0, 17.1, 20.1, 18.0, 12.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.4, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 34.7, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 19.8, "roe_median": 18.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.2, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.11, "capex_dep": 2.18, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 16.7, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 15.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": 4.6, "rev_yoy": 22.0, "np_yoy": -7.3, "np_vol": 32.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 59.4, "fwd_pe2": 48.5, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 2.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["电机类产品", 18.0], ["汽车电机", 18.0], ["清洗类产品", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 113.8, "ret_prev2_year": -8.8, "ret_ytd": -12.7, "ret_pivot": 177.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": -23.3, "ret_120": -20.8, "ret_250": 18.9, "mdd_250": -46.7, "vol_250": 72.7, "pos_52w": 63.7}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 54, "hard": 32, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 78.6 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.7%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.7%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.18 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 78.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -23% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "恒帅股份:PE 比行业中位高 48.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}