{"F": {"ts_code": "300967.SZ", "name": "晓鸣股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "肉鸡养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210413", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.91, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.9638, "dv_ttm": 1.3817, "total_mv": 335946.6459, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.9, 22.5, 12.7, 0.9, 16.5, 22.0], "rev_series": [5.4, 7.1, 7.9, 8.3, 9.7, 12.2], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 0.1, -1.5, 0.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [8.5, 11.4, 0.9, -20.2, 5.9, 10.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.4, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 16.5, "gm_std": 7.9, "gm_stab": 0.52, "gm_chg_2022": -14.2, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 65.8, "fix_assets": 10.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.4, "capex_dep": 1.06, "interest_debt": 6.4, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 52.3, "debt_mv": 19.1, "payout": 68.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 15.8, "np_cagr3": 126.2, "rev_yoy": -24.5, "np_yoy": -99.0, "np_vol": 907.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["鸡产品收入", 43.0], ["鸡", 43.0], ["副产品收入", 7.0], ["副产品", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 64.4, "ret_prev2_year": -18.3, "ret_ytd": -3.6, "ret_pivot": 108.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.6, "ret_60": -3.6, "ret_120": -10.8, "ret_250": -19.6, "mdd_250": -48.5, "vol_250": 50.6, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 30, "hard": 100, "bondness": 52}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 66%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 52%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 52%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 1.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / -4% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "晓鸣股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.6个百分点。"]}}