{"F": {"ts_code": "300964.SZ", "name": "本川智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20210805", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.7, "pe_ttm": 114.337, "pb": 5.7472, "dv_ttm": 0.252, "total_mv": 605893.932, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 22.2, 19.3, 16.9, 18.9, 17.1], "rev_series": [4.4, 5.5, 5.6, 5.1, 6.0, 8.8], "np_series": [0.8, 0.5, 0.5, 0.0, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [24.5, 7.9, 4.8, 0.5, 2.4, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -1.0, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 18.9, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -10.6, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.2, "fix_assets": 6.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 5.37, "capex_dep": 1.42, "interest_debt": 4.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 51.8, "debt_mv": 6.8, "payout": 65.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.1, "np_cagr3": -12.6, "rev_yoy": 61.0, "np_yoy": 99.0, "np_vol": 171.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["印制线路板", 30.0], ["PCB", 30.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 55.9, "ret_prev2_year": -8.1, "ret_ytd": 43.0, "ret_pivot": 162.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.2, "ret_60": -11.3, "ret_120": 26.2, "ret_250": 63.2, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 79.1, "pos_52w": 65.8}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 45, "hard": 45, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 114.3 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.42 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 114.3 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 63%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 79%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -11% / 26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "本川智能:PE 比行业中位高 49.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}